Year 2024, Volume 9, Issue 3
| Year : | 2024 |
| Volume : | 9 |
| Issue : | 3 |
| Authors : | Laura Cunha Rebouças LESSA, José de Jesus Sousa LEMOS, Francisco José Silva TABOSA, Filomena Nádia Rodrigues BEZERRA, Fernando Antônio Teixeira MENDES |
| Title : | CLIMATE INSTABILITY, RESILIENCE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN PARAÍBA, BRAZIL |
| Abstract : | The majority of farmers in the state of Paraiba, located in the northeast of Brazil, practice rainfed agriculture, which depends on rainfall for its full development. The crops studied in this research are rice, beans, cassava and corn, that are mostly grown in the state, especially by family farmers. These crops provide income, occupation and food security for families. The specific objectives of the research are: to assess whether these rainfed crops have sustainable yields and incomes as a result of climate variability in the state between 1945 and 2020; and to assess whether rainfall instabilities interfere with the production forecast for these crops. Crop production data was taken from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Annual rainfall data for the state was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The research used the Box and Jenkins method to draw the trajectories of productivity and aggregate income per hectare. Geometric Growth Rates (GGR) were estimated to assess whether there was sustainability in productivity and income over the period investigated. The results show that the state had high rainfall instability (measured by a coefficient of variation of 26%) and that rainfall interferes in predicting aggregate productivity, but does not directly interfere in predicting aggregate income per hectare of the crops studied. In general, farmers were able to maintain sustainable agricultural production in Paraiba and were self-resilient to the effects of the stresses caused by the unstable rainfall observed during the period studied. |
| For citation : | Lessa, L. C. R., Lemos, J. J. S., Tabosa, F. J.S., Bezerra, F. N. R., Mendes, F. A. T. Climate instability, resilience and rural development in Paraíba, Brazil. AGROFOR International Journal, Volume 9. Issue No. 3. pp. 117-126. DOI: 10.7251/AGREN2403117L |
| Keywords : | Brazilian semi-arid region, rain fed crops, Box and Jenkins model, Sustainable productivity and income, drought. |
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ISSN 2490-3434 (Printed)
ISSN 2490-3442 (Online)
ISSN 2490-3442 (Online)
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